This will primarily be of interest to UK members but feel free to join in even if you don't live here I do not under any circumstances want this to be a political thread, either with a capital or lower case 'P' but depending who you believe or trust, come April 1st this year the UK could either be: A) Very prosperous having done loads of lucrative new deals around the world B) Plunged back into the dark ages or C) Something else entirely Leaving aside politics then, is anyone else making any contingency plans? I don't mean like full on doomsday prepper style, just making sure you have enough essentials to get you through a rough patch - if one happens. Personally I always make sure I have at least half a tank of heating kero (1/2 x 1800 Ltrs = 900Ltrs which can also be used in lanterns and camping stoves) and I have plenty of mantles with more on order. TBH I don't think there's a lot else I could realistically do. All my freezers are full but that's normal and if the electrics go down I won't be able to eat everything in a couple of weeks anyhow. Just curious.
I can't see either A or B being in any way logical or even sensible - just more rhetoric/bullshit from those with a vested interest. So, for me, C - I think the sun will come up and the world will keep on turnin' - a bit like the Millenium Bug...
Another day, another dollar! Probably won’t have the same buying power for a while..... Regards Jeremy
Maybe not WW 2 levels of scarcity post Brexit. But the pound will lose value, food and medical and other commodity prices will increase . British government revenues will be down and I think austerity for 80% of British households will feel permanent. What no one is talking about is that a hard or soft Brexit might coincide with the start of world wide economic recession brewing as a result of American economic policies. That would be kicking a man while he's down.
Spent yesterday researching WTO trade rules and schedules and how they would work on an international level if the UK leaves the EU without an agreement. It would appear that until now, no country has done what the UK maybe forced to do if the withdrawal agreement doesn't make it through parliament. The situation with WTO inter-country tariffs and trade schedules (who knew they were even a thing?) is complex and reaching agreements can take a long time, particularly if one of the parties objects which is extremely common from what I saw. Trade can and will continue, but what will change (because we will have to negotiate new schedules) is the quotas and tariffs, which will basically mean we won't get such advantageous deals as we previously did and in some cases they are likely to be much worse. I'll be the first one to admit that I'm not an economist but pretty much all the analysts I found seemed to think that sorting out the mess after we leave (assuming we face a no-deal scenario) will take up to five years+ to sort out and in the meantime international trade will not be straightforward which will mean delays, shortages and most importantly expense. The UK will continue trading, that's obvious, but on much less favourable terms until we negotiate new ones and we will be a small fish in a very large world sized pond. I have to say, I didn't understand what all this WTO stuff was about until I went looking but now.... well I'm quite worried. Things genuinely could get quite sticky!
The issue with World Trade Organisation rules, is that - that is what they are - rules, not Law as in a Treaty. Furthermore (and I'm no expert) search for WTO and the vast majority of strikes will be articles from newspapers whose journalists and commenters have the most flimsy of grasps on how they will affect the UK and the EU. Other websites will laud their values, as they most likely have vested interests. Just who can you trust? Some are stocking up on basic commodities as somewhere in the region of 30% of our foodstuffs come from Europe. Toilet rolls too, newspaper was used at one time, though if some return to that it might be advantageous to speculate on taking shares with Dynorod, as it's a bog clogger. Like it says on the tin - "Use sparingly" . . . . Brexit should never be seen as an event. It's a process that will take decades to adjust to. We have been absorbed into a political hierarchy which has left a generation or more of younger people without any direct knowledge of life before, and a parliamentary system with a very damaged skeletal structure - they've forgotten how to govern having been in the passenger seat for so long. The Continental 'carrot' was swallowed whole back in 1973 without recourse to a public vote, and every subsequent treaty has locked us further in as a Nation. 1975 referendum? Sold down the river with propaganda. The general public have more information at their fingertips now than then. Whether they use or believe it - and what they choose to believe, is another thing. We have been over forty years in a system designed to amalgamate Europe as a political federal state, sold on the premise of a trading block. The latter is operated by the former. The origins? That's arguable. Some will say the Nazis in 1942, others the Monnet plan from 1922, and yet others will say in essence, it goes back centuries and reference Empire building. We'll be growing our own, and going without various items for quite a while. One thing is for certain - we live in interesting times.
I think the pause button will be depressed probably at the 11th hour and we will be asked to put an X on a ballot paper. But just in case I am wrong I have been stocking up on paraffin just in case of power outages which are a real possibility given the UK is not self suficcient in power generation. We live in very worrying times.
Besides the this reason: being preparred is not a bad idea in general. Some years ago a dutch helicopter pilot succesfully cut down some high power lines. A whole area was left in the dark for a long period.
I think you are right , you can prepare effectively for small temporary emergencies . But not for major catastrophes. We have a macro situation to which the micro solution won't work. In America we have seen with our own eyes in SEVERE wild fires, floods and hurricanes that environmental collapse due to Global Warming cannot be resisted effectively individually. Here in Northern California there is individual , community and Billions of dollars in state preparation for wild fires but with the recent Camp Fire it didn't amount to a hill of beans , all that prepping was a waste versus the size of the catastrophe. What Americans would have to do is join the global organized effort against Global Warming to avoid Camp Fires in the first place. Similarly a victory garden , stock piling goods or just muddle thru it optimism etc won't make a big difference to the Brits surviving Brexit. The money supply will shrink , social institutions devolve and the economy will contract. Many Leavers were voting against the fall of their standards of living, economic and social status versus immigrants and feeling of disenfranchisement. Post Brexit reality of an authoritarian British state and militant neo liberal economic regime will worsen what they were really voting against . Organized effort against the Brexit catastrophe would be a Second Referendum. To there credit EU leaders have sent clear signals that a second ref to cancel Brexit would be welcomed . If I'm British I am People's Vote, Second Referendum all the way ,its the organized response to a catastrophe before it hits.
The climate changes - with or without man's help. The globe warms, the globe cools. Get over it. Or maybe study natural history. Forest fires, floods, rock falls are part of nature. Build a house or community within places prone to such natural events is asking for trouble. Brexit is not a catastrophe, it's a process that will take decades to achieve. As a Nation we have been absorbed into a proxy government controlled from Brussels for over forty years. Would Americans like to be controlled by Westminster instead of Washington? I think not. What is a catastrophe, is the manner in which our government has chosen to ignore the most opportune (but not ideal) path of joining EFTA and remaining in the EEA, and instead dropping a rock through the bottom of the boat after having cast off by dismissing same, and choosing to attempt "negotiations" with an anti-democratic federal block that "rules out" negotiating. There were no "signals" from the EU - it was all in the manual - which was studiously ignored. A second referendum is pointless. Over 17 million more people voted leave than wanted to remain, and the remainers are throwing their toys out the pram. And a second referendum would ask what exactly? To leave or remain? No, it would be a mulitple choice ballot which would guarantee a complete mess and achieve nothing. (No time either). And - yes - the EU would love us to capitulate and remain. Because they wouldn't have to do anything. "Peoples" vote? You're having a laugh. That's not a catastrophe response - that's fear of the unkown, the natural choice for humans the world over - they fear change. We need change. Our political system has atrophied. Our parliament has a seriously damaged skeletal structure aided and abetted by a generation of politicians who have taken the passenger seat and handed the controls to a foreign potentate for over forty years. This familiarity of a cushy number has bred contempt - contempt for the population at large. They thought we would vote to remain. They are stuck in the bunker with a putter. As previously stated - We live in interesting times. We'll get over it.
The comparison of the EU with some totalitarian political system like Fascism is very wrong. The EU economic system is the social market , free market capitalism with some social democratic buffers to protect citizens. Brexit will mean Britain hewing more to the American system of market fundamentalism , deregulation, privatization , total commodification, and a weak underfunded national government. Brexit will mimic American authoritarianism politically and neo liberalism economically and the average British citizens freedom will not increase , in fact British elites will be able to discipline the British populace with the Brexit stick and firm up the old hierarchy of British class rule, social status and flea bitten non democratic police order. That same political class are the only ones who can influence peddle , partner with foreign investors, accept bribes and be privy to how to make fortunes from the FTA's , that's why the Tories are dead set against the Second Ref and warning of blood in the streets, there will be blood in the streets they are saying if they can't make their money. Much of modern politics is the management of the population through manipulation and Brexit is typical, the idea and practice of Brexit is from the right wing political class not organically arisen from from the bottom or middle of British society. Elites used outright lies and hot button issues to enervate a Brexit vote outcome they wanted and that won't benefit the Leavers who voted for it. The EU aren't the baddies here, but the British entered the negotiation without any leverage, Brexit made Britain a toffee and so there can be no surprise it got eaten in the negotiation. The alternative , cliff edge is Britain cutting its nose off to spite its face. If Britons couldn't understand the Brexit repercussions 2 years ago how can there be confidence in reading how Brexit will play out in the next 10 or 20 years? The cancellation of Brexit isn't some free gift from the EU they have an interest but it is a free get out of jail card from a current situation that is just a mess . I would take the card and just run with it and be done with Brexit.
I hate the word brexit and prefer to call it an exercise in national self harm. The people's vote is the only rational way forwards, the original referendum was primarily held due to a 40 plus year schism within the Tory party and many of the promises made were total lies, there is also evidence of dodgy funding of the campaign. So given the brexit promised by vote leave is unachievable and the hopeless May deal which is unacceptable to almost everyone isn't it right for the country to be asked is this what you really want? The whole mess makes me thoroughly ashamed to be British.
As regards facts vs opinions, I feel there are precious few facts to be had because both sides appear to have obfuscated any reliable data. The quality of debate before the referendum was mostly lies and half-truths shouted through megaphones and since then all we've really had is posturing on both sides. Both the Labour party and the Tories are internally split so effectively we have a number of political blocks: Tory leave, Tory remain, Labour leave, Labour remain, the Lib Dems, Scottish Nationalists, the DUP and Plaid Cumru plus greens and some others. Some on the right still see the EU as a worthwhile trading block that offers economic benefits to big business, but others in the same party hate the social side of the EU such as working time time directives and worker's rights. Some on the left are suspicious of the EU, viewing it as a trading club for unscrupulous big business interests, while other in the same party like the social side and want to stay in and negotiate rather than leave. To claim that the EU vote was overwhelmingly in support of leaving is just plain wrong and anyway, it's missing the point. There was a majority in favour of leaving but the vote split the populace down the middle. If each side was an army there would be stalemate. 51/49 or 52/48 or whatever does not provide a clear outcome. Leave won and remain lost, that is a fact but the outcome exposed a completely divided nation, left most political parties split and left us with no effective political leadership to navigate some sort of path through the mess as they all slunk away, unwilling to pick up the poison challice. I think it's extremely likely that the UK will crash out without a deal and be forced to operate our trade under WTO rules. I was told that WTO rules are not really rules at all and we don't have to follow anything, but any country trying to 'do their own thing' will face huge resentment from other members, so very few will be willing to jeopardise their existing trade deals for fear of reprisals. So, working to WTO rules may be OK in long term, but that long term will probably be 5 years minimum during which time our country may well suffer some very unpleasant consequences. Too many politicians are trying to come out the other end of this mess with as little muck on their hands as possible while the others are happy to indulge in political points scoring to the benefit of no-one. No-one knows what's going to happen, that is true, but I don't hear many voices saying it's all going to be Springtime with roses come April, in fact the debate seems to be largely focussed on how much s**t will hit the fan and for how long... and for what? Non existent straight bananas? The ability to tell johnny Foreigner to piss off back home? Conducting our business outside the EU will mean dealing with a lot more 'Johnny Foreigners' and we won't be viewed very highly if we behave like it's still 1932 and we still have an Empire! Nothing anyone has said thus far makes me any less worried about the future than I was before.
Hi Derek, what Hanzo indirectly points at, is, Northern California benefits a lot from being part of the strong U.S. being governed from distant Washington. So did UK for decades in EU. It's peoples choice in UK. But its never bad to have a second thought. Would be very interesting to see if people decide different, after having received more clear view, what EU leave means to them. Regs Willi
About prepping: I'd believe power cuts are not biggest threat for life. Missing water supply as an indirect implication of a power failure is more of a threat. Electricity, light, heat, can all be maintained with some stock of Kero and gasoline. But water supply will be the real challenge in urban city areas. But I'd not expect problems from brexit on those. Rather think about temporary shortages of items not produced but imported to UK. E.g. Some Medicine. Certainly expect loss of buying power of Brit pound. Life will become bit more expensive. I'd never hesitate to abandon my native language, to join in on a common EU language, to gain benefit from better communication and understanding each other. As large economics do benefit , see U.S. and China. Schengen borders, Euro currency, etc. were first steps in right direction, from which Germany, BeNeLux, France and others benefitted a lot. UK was always hesitant to join in on those and take full advantage of EU. UK was captive of Thatcher. Pity. For prepping, think of cash stocks too. And sanitary items. Not because of Brexit, but various catastrophes. Br willi
...and then there's the emotive language such as "crash out". Why don't we just say 'leave'. That's what will most likely happen. What exactly will happen when we leave is pure speculation. One thing is certain - the money men will take their cut, big business will make the most of it to maximise profits and politicians of every hue will feather their nests. The rest of us will just have to get on with it, as usual
Amen to that! Someone, somewhere will always make a profit from any change in circumstances. I remember decimalisation and the suspicion that quite a few shops were 'rounding up' prices unnecessarily to make extra profits.
So right Willi. California also has succession and partitions movements, CalExit for example . CalExit was discredited because its leader turned out to be a New York born Russian resident and to be enjoying Russian government support in his plan. Not coincidentally the Russians also love Brexit. Prop 9 would partition California into three separate states , it is sponsored by Billionaire Tim Draper. Prop 9 was due to become a referendum on the November 2018 ballot. The state Supreme Court intervened and declared it unconstitutional and to require more study, shelving it. Basically the powers that be in California decided to nix a ballot initiative that would have destroyed the state politically and economically. They took the gun out of the hand of the suicide by not allowing a vote on the measure. Those outside the state of California who hate California and what it represents love the idea of California succession or partition because they realize its so self destructive .
Yes we all remember the red bus stating that £350M extra per week could be spent on the NHS when we leave - one of the biggest and most dishonest political lies ever seen in the UK. Instead we face shortages of medical supplies and as someone who relies on medication produced in the EU I find this very worrying. Unless common sense prevails a hard / disorderly brexit will be happening in less than 3 months time
Will buying lamps and shipping them from the UK be less expensive after brexit ? For the rest: it would be silly to think that leaving a group, like the EU, will cost you nothing and you will only gain profit. It looks like no politian has thought this plan realy good through. You will have border issues, you will have trade / import issues. I am guessing that the costs of discussing this subject will be far more then any profit in the future.
I don't think they are capable of thinking Wim, only talking. There will be profits made for those who bet on trading commodities and forex. For those outside of such 'worlds', ordinary folk going about their daily business, it will cost us dear. It will be inconvenient, and it will quite possibly last for decades, I think five years is optimistic but no-one - least of all politicians know the repercussions in detail, they have their feather beds to fall on anyway. The various 'leave' campaigns were a disgrace, as were the remain ones. Neither side had any kind of plan for an exit from the EU, but one did and does exist. Had it been adopted we wouldn't be in the situation we are in now, though that is also conjecture. Instead it was disregarded completely, as it was not put forward by any government stooge. That red 'bus' was a joke. And here in the UK we have a film made of the whole shenanigins about to be played out by actors who in the main are for remaining. In essence, more propaganda for the luvvies.
Reminds me of a photo taken of a bombed out shop in East London. Windows and door gone, and the sign outside said: "Open all hours".
I've no real problem with the term 'Brexit', (although I bridle somewhat when I hear it pronounced Bregg-zit) If I go to a restaurant, say, when I've had my meal I simply leave, through the exit. I don't "crash-out" - never have, it's not my style. Incidentally, could someone remind me of the original question we were asked in 2016 to which we answered 'Yes' or 'No'? But, hey, let's sensationalise it all and get a load more gullible people to buy our newspapers / watch our programmes / buy our book / get fired up / start stockpiling / whatever...
David I get the feeling that some use the term " crash out " with gusto and are going to make a dash to the restaurants exit door without paying the check. They are counting on reneging on paying the EU the 39 Billion pound divorce bill as one of the benefits of no deal.
